After a magnitude of 7.2 earthquake struck Bohol on October 15, 2013 at 8:12 a.m. (PST), earthquake as a topic has become so prominent again. With the devastation that happened in Bohol, should a similar earthquake magnitude occurs in Manila, such calamity would be so unprecedented given the city's million population.
In 2002 it was a study was started on the Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila, Republic of the Philippines, and in 2004 a Final Report was made. The report below was culled from this document -
Consider this earthquake scenario from the study:
Analyzing past historically recorded earthquakes and instrumentally recorded earthquakes, a total 18 earthquakes were selected as scenario earthquakes, which have potential damaging effect to Metropolitan Manila; also earthquake ground motion, liquefaction potential, slope stability and tsunami height are estimated.
Finally three models namely,
- Model 08 (WestValley Faults M.7.2),
- Model 13 (Manila Trench M.7.9),
- Model 18 (1863 Manila Bay M.6.5),
were selected for detail damage analysis because these scenario earthquakes show typical and severe damages to Metropolitan Manila.
Model 08, as the worst case,
- 170,000 residential houses will collapse,
- 340,000 residential houses will be partly damaged,
- 34,000 persons will die,
- 114,000 persons will be injured.
Fire will breakout and burnt approximately 1,710 hectares and totally 18,000 additional persons will be killed by this secondary disaster. Moreover, infrastructures and lifelines will also be heavily damaged.
Source - http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph//images/attachments/article/419/E_SUMMARY_01.PDF
Well I just hope that most of us living here in Metropolitan Manila are properly informed about these scenarios and are educated on what to do in case this would happen. With the use of social media I hope that there would be infographics and educational videos that will be made to educate and inform the public and hope news media and telcos would do their share to promote awareness and disaster mitigation.
In 1990s when I was a high school I had an experience of a powerful earthquake and its aftershocks, the fear and trauma is still vivid and now living again in the city and in a high rise building I hope I will be more capable in handling if such situation would occur, especially the BIG ONE that many have been anticipating. Hope it will never come.
Fault in our neighborhood
History of earthquakes in the Philippines
News report on the earthquake (un)readiness of Manila:
Check Phivolcs FB page here -